Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.536627 18.081459 20.860986 24.115456 27.814418 31.880530 36.681157
2024-10-06 12.298951 15.974941 20.383199 26.025440 33.018067 41.359738 52.020042
2024-10-13 9.667635 13.822769 19.224341 26.679270 36.606190 49.263116 66.496187
2024-10-20 7.763077 12.087572 18.122009 27.010252 39.589171 56.543921 80.865185
2024-10-27 6.372236 10.717359 17.177517 27.254665 42.291357 63.547708 95.417698
2024-11-03 5.739816 10.315602 17.496372 29.251289 47.579668 74.522700 116.397136
2024-11-10 5.082149 9.726112 17.393439 30.520217 51.831124 84.293305 136.408287
2024-11-17 4.505357 9.150767 17.194945 31.552382 55.743023 93.806163 156.731391
2024-11-24 3.818455 8.240468 16.275917 31.227908 57.364617 99.821125 172.046355
2024-12-01 3.143454 7.216102 14.986019 30.058936 57.384881 103.183843 183.299299
2024-12-08 2.621018 6.388504 13.921023 29.124844 57.652295 106.885733 195.272159
2024-12-15 2.307228 5.936155 13.502380 29.321047 59.912951 114.075732 213.524104
2024-12-22 1.993973 5.437110 12.944176 29.233413 61.748889 120.868357 231.973986
2024-12-29 1.862478 5.338682 13.212493 30.843087 66.983962 134.168009 262.890981
2025-01-05 1.660225 5.023854 12.961981 31.343254 70.099437 143.847409 288.035389
2025-01-12 1.470043 4.697124 12.631080 31.622263 72.786271 152.919616 312.697935
2025-01-19 1.303235 4.394350 12.305341 31.862721 75.400778 162.028790 338.027965
2025-01-26 1.265551 4.448709 12.850483 34.138954 82.499475 180.322277 381.885816
2025-02-02 1.186461 4.363561 13.033113 35.587580 87.941129 195.709633 421.098856
2025-02-09 1.101678 4.241636 13.101653 36.767883 92.892380 210.439757 459.916657
2025-02-16 0.962671 3.911595 12.564396 36.394943 94.322097 218.075258 485.162688
2025-02-23 0.808148 3.486333 11.690730 35.054459 93.389755 220.711616 500.496137
2025-03-02 0.685132 3.134975 10.961891 33.982946 92.961136 224.344212 518.039205